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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."